2025 ‘virtually certain’ to be second- or third-hottest year on record, EU data shows
EU climate scientists say 2025 is almost certain to end as either the second- or third-hottest year ever recorded globally, just behind 2024 and very close to 2023. This is based on data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service showing exceptionally high global average temperatures from January through November 2025, about 1.48°C above pre‑industrial levels.
Copernicus data indicates that 2025 is currently tied with 2023 for the second-warmest year, and whether it finishes second or third will depend only on the final December figures. Even in an ENSO‑neutral to La Niña phase, temperatures have stayed extremely high, underscoring that long‑term greenhouse gas–driven warming now dominates over natural climate variability.
From January to November 2025, global average temperature has been about 1.48°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, very close to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement limit for long‑term warming. November 2025 alone was around 1.54°C warmer than pre‑industrial levels, one of the hottest individual months in the record.
According to Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 is expected to remain the hottest year on record, with 2023 and 2025 effectively competing for second and third place. The period 2015–2025 contains all of the warmest years since at least the mid‑19th century, highlighting a clear upward trend rather than isolated anomalies.
Scientists stress that the 1.5°C goal in the Paris Agreement refers to a multi‑decadal average, so a single year above or near 1.5°C does not by itself mean the threshold is definitively and permanently breached. However, analyses now suggest the three‑year average for 2023–2025 is on track to exceed 1.5°C for the first time, which they see as a strong warning about accelerating climate risks.
Researchers attribute the record and near‑record warmth primarily to continued greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, with natural cycles like El Niño only amplifying or modulating this trend. They warn that more frequent extreme heat, droughts, floods and other weather extremes are already impacting economies, food security and health worldwide.
EU and UN climate agencies say current national policies are still insufficient to keep long‑term warming below 1.5°C, urging faster cuts in CO₂ and other greenhouse gases. The 2025 data is being used as an additional wake‑up call ahead of future climate summits, where countries are expected to strengthen their emission‑reduction pledges.
