2025 will be world’s second or third-hottest year on record, EU scientists say
EU climate scientists say 2025 is virtually certain to end as one of the three hottest years ever recorded globally, most likely in second or third place behind 2024.
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reports that global temperatures from January to November 2025 are so high that the year can only realistically end up as the second- or third-warmest in the instrumental record. Current data show 2025 closely competing with 2023 for that second/third position, with only 2024 clearly ahead as the hottest year observed so far.
C3S also indicates that 2025 will likely complete the first three-year period (2023–2025) in which the average global temperature stays above 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to the 1850–1900 pre‑industrial baseline. This does not mean the Paris Agreement target is formally breached permanently, but it signals that the world is repeatedly crossing that level and that the pace of climate change is accelerating.
UN and space-agency analyses confirm that 2024 is the hottest year on record, with global temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre‑industrial levels. The last decade has seen every year ranked among the top ten hottest, illustrating a persistent upward trend rather than isolated extremes.
Projections compiled by climate analysts suggest there is only a very small chance that 2025 beats 2024, but around a 50–50 split between ending up second or third warmest. These anomalies are primarily linked to continued greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, combined with natural variability such as El Niño events.
