US Volcano Hit by A Swarm of Earthquakes: Will It Erupt Now?
Mount Spurr, a 11,000-foot volcano in Alaska located 77 miles west of Anchorage, is being closely monitored by scientists due to a significant increase in seismic activity since April 2024. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has observed a rise in earthquake frequency from 30 per week to 125 per week by early October, attributing this to new magma activity beneath the volcano.
Eruption:
50-50 Chance: Scientists estimate a 50% chance of an eruption in the near future.
Crater Peak Vent: The most likely site for an eruption is the Crater Peak vent, which erupted in 1992 and 1953.
Summit Eruption: AVO considers an eruption from the Spurr summit as the least likely scenario.
False Alarm: It’s also possible that the magma movement could cease without any volcanic activity, similar to the increased earthquakes in 2004 and 2005 that subsided without an eruption.
Potential Hazards:
Ash Plumes: An eruption could unleash explosive plumes of ash. The 1992 eruption sent an ash column soaring 65,000 feet into the sky.
Pyroclastic Flows: Fast-moving avalanches of hot gas, ash, and rock could reach speeds of over 200 mph.
Lahars: Destructive mudslides could be triggered by melting snow and ice.
Ash Fallout: Ashfall could pose a significant health risk, causing respiratory issues and releasing toxins.
Air Travel Disruption: Ash particles can severely threaten jet engines, potentially causing airport closures and affecting air travel between North America and Asia.
Monitoring for Imminent Eruption:
Seismic Activity: Scientists are monitoring for additional changes in seismic patterns. The migration of seismic activity from the summit to Crater Peak suggests that an eruption could originate from the side vent, similar to the 1992 eruption.
Additional Indicators: Scientists are looking for further increases in the number of earthquakes, sustained seismic tremor, increased gas emissions, changes in surface deformation, and melting of snow and ice.
Warning Signs: In 1992, warning signs appeared approximately three weeks before the eruption.
Current Status:
Increased Seismic Activity: Since the unrest began 10 months ago, more than 2,700 earthquakes have been recorded, with the strongest being a magnitude 2.9 on January 2, 2025.
Ground Inflation: Ground inflation was measured at 6 cm (2.4 inches), with models indicating that the deformation source is located 3 to 5 km (1.9 to 3.1 miles) below sea level and 3 to 4 km (1.9 to 2.5 miles) west of the summit.
Gas Emissions: A gas measurement flight on February 7, 2025, detected low levels of sulfur dioxide (SO2).
