Trump’s Gaza plan is a significant step – but faces fundamental obstacles

Trump’s Gaza plan marks a major diplomatic initiative toward ending the conflict, but it faces fundamental obstacles stemming from political, security, and governance realities faced by all stakeholders involved.

Key Elements of the Plan

• The plan consists of 20 principles that emphasize an immediate ceasefire, the return of hostages, withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the demilitarization of Gaza.

• A temporary technocratic Palestinian committee would govern Gaza, overseen by an international board that includes Trump and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.

• Gaza’s security would be ensured by an undefined international stabilization force.

• The roadmap hints at future Palestinian statehood, but with multiple conditions and no clear guarantees.

Major Obstacles

• Vague Governance Structure: There is uncertainty over how the transitional authority would be constituted, who would select its members, and the actual role of the Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu has nearly ruled out PA rule in Gaza, while Hamas sees itself excluded.

• Ambiguous Security Protocols: The plan does not detail who will be part of the stabilizing force, their mandate, or whether they will confront Hamas or interact with Israeli forces.

• No Clear Timetable: The timing for Israeli withdrawal is left ambiguous, dependent on milestones of demilitarization and “adequate security,” with no concrete criteria about who decides when these conditions are met.

• Hamas’s Position: Hamas has signaled deep skepticism, insisting that any plan must guarantee an Israeli withdrawal and Palestinian interests, which are not assured by the current proposal.

• Political Resistance: Netanyahu faces pressure internally from coalition members who oppose parts of the plan, and past behavior suggests he may undermine the agreement for domestic stability.

• Uncertainty Over Statehood: The proposal references Palestinian aspirations for statehood but provides only vague assurances, setting PA reforms and Gaza redevelopment as prerequisites while stating statehood “may” be considered in the future.

International and Local Response

• Israel has “accepted” the plan in principle, but contentious elements remain unaddressed within the Israeli government.

• Hamas’s leadership has not formally endorsed the plan, and local Gazan sentiment is skeptical of its ability to guarantee peace or improve their lives.

• Regional leaders and the Palestinian Authority publicly welcome elements of the plan, though practical implementation remains far from assured.

While Trump’s Gaza plan represents a significant shift and could lay the groundwork for renewed negotiations, its ambiguity, unresolved governance questions, lack of clear timelines, and political risks for all sides pose substantial obstacles to lasting peace.