Are Any Asteroids a Threat to Earth in the Near Future?
No. Based on current data from NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and other observatories, there are no known asteroids on a collision course with Earth for at least the next 100 years.
Scientists continuously track thousands of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), including those labeled Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs)—objects large enough and close enough to merit close monitoring—but none pose an imminent danger.
Asteroids Under Observation
99942 Apophis (“God of Chaos”)
-
Size: ~370 meters (1,200 feet) wide
-
Close approach: April 13, 2029, passing closer than some communication satellites
-
Impact risk: Ruled out for at least the next century
101955 Bennu
-
Sampled by NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission
-
Impact chance: about 1 in 2,700 between 2178–2200, far in the future
-
No near-term threat
2024 YR4
-
Once thought risky for 2032, now confirmed safe after refined observations
2025 FA22
-
Skyscraper-sized asteroid
-
Once on a risk list for 2089, but removed after new tracking
-
Passed safely in September 2025 at over twice the Moon’s distance
2025 TC
-
About 13 meters (44 feet) across
-
Passed Earth safely on October 3, 2025, at about 53,000 miles—well outside the atmosphere
Smaller objects like 2025 TP5 and 2025 TF pass close frequently but are too small to cause damage, burning up as bright fireballs if they enter the atmosphere.
How Planetary Defense Works
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs):
Objects larger than ~140 meters (460 feet) that pass within 7.5 million km (4.6 million miles) of Earth’s orbit. “Potentially hazardous” means worthy of attention, not likely to impact.
Continuous Monitoring:
Global observatories—using systems like Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, and NASA’s Sentry—track orbits and refine predictions. Most initial risks drop to zero after more data is collected.
Risk Assessment:
NASA uses the Torino Scale and Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale to evaluate risk. Currently, no known asteroid scores high enough to pose concern this century.
The Long-Term Outlook
-
As of late 2025, over 2,300 PHAs are known, but none threaten Earth in the next few decades.
-
Only a handful of objects have any measurable (and extremely small) long-term probabilities of impact, centuries from now.
-
Missions like DART (2022) proved that humans can deflect an asteroid if necessary.
-
Roughly 95% of NEOs larger than 1 km—those capable of global damage—have already been discovered.
There are no known asteroids on track to hit Earth in the near future.
The next major close approach will be Apophis in 2029, which is confirmed safe.
Space agencies worldwide continue to monitor the skies daily, ensuring Earth remains well protected.
