For Trump, Resuming Combat in Iran Would Be Risky, Even if Cease-Fire Expires
President Trump faces substantial political and military challenges in resuming combat operations against Iran, even as the recent two-week ceasefire—announced on April 7, 2026, and mediated by Pakistan—nears potential expiration.
Ceasefire Background
The US-Iran truce followed intense escalation, including US strikes starting February 28, 2026, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump’s ultimatums threatening Iran’s infrastructure. It requires Iran to reopen the strait temporarily while suspending US attacks, paving the way for talks in Islamabad on April 10 based on Iran’s 10-point proposal. Trump described it as a “double-sided ceasefire” after meeting military goals, but tensions persist with no full resolution.
Key Risks for Resuming Combat
Political fallout looms large, as renewed strikes could alienate voters amid high energy prices from Hormuz disruptions and draw criticism for potential war crimes targeting civilian infrastructure like power plants. Militarily, US munitions are depleted from supporting Israel and Ukraine, complicating sustained operations, while Iran retains nuclear expertise and could retaliate unpredictably against US troops or allies.
Strategic Considerations
Officials warn of running out of viable targets, risking a prolonged “cutting the grass” stalemate that fails to dislodge Iranian control over key chokepoints. Negotiations offer a diplomatic off-ramp, but Trump’s resolve will be tested if Iran balks on demands like relinquishing near-bomb-grade materials at Isfahan. Escalation could spike global oil prices further and invite broader regional backlash.
