Monsoon 2025 in India: Forecast and Key Updates
Early Onset Over Kerala: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the southwest monsoon will arrive in Kerala earlier than usual in 2025, with onset expected between May 25 and May 27. This is ahead of the typical onset date of June 1 and could be the earliest arrival since 2009.
Expected Progression Across India
After reaching Kerala, the monsoon generally advances northward, covering the entire country by early July. Expected arrival dates for major cities are:
Hyderabad: June 5–10
Bengaluru and Chennai: June 1–5
Mumbai and Kolkata: June 10–15
Ahmedabad: June 15–20
Delhi and Jaipur: June 25–30
Rainfall Outlook for 2025
The IMD’s forecast suggests above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, with rainfall likely to exceed 104% of the long-period average.
El Niño conditions, which sometimes reduce rainfall, are not expected to have a significant impact this year.
Rainfall categories:
Normal: 96–104% of average
Above normal: 105–110%
Excess: Over 110%
Weather Patterns and Current Conditions
May 2025 has seen more rainfall than usual in South and Central India, with thunderstorms and pre-monsoon showers.
Cities like Mumbai have experienced early rain and weather alerts for heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal may bring heavy rain to coastal areas and could temporarily slow the monsoon’s progress inland.
Agricultural and Economic Significance
The monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture, which supports a large portion of the population and is a significant part of the economy.
An early and strong monsoon benefits crop sowing and helps replenish water reservoirs.
| Aspect | 2025 Forecast/Status |
|---|---|
| Kerala Onset | May 25–27 (earliest since 2009) |
| All-India Rainfall | Above-normal (>104% of average) |
| Major City Arrivals | Hyderabad: June 5–10; Mumbai/Kolkata: June 10–15; Delhi: June 25–30 |
| Current Weather | Unusually wet May, pre-monsoon showers, thunderstorms |
| Key Risks | Possible stalling due to cyclonic activity |
Monsoon 2025 in India is expected to arrive early, with above-normal rainfall predicted across the country. This is good news for agriculture and water resources, though there may be short-term weather disruptions in coastal areas due to cyclonic systems.
