The key factors behind the NDA’s victory in the Bihar elections of 2025
The key factors behind the NDA’s victory in the Bihar elections of 2025 were multifaceted and strategically significant.
A major contributor was the strong support from women voters, bolstered by Nitish Kumar’s welfare schemes such as the ₹10,000 financial aid to women, which created a positive wave and emotional connection. The NDA also benefited from a higher turnout of women voters, whose safety and empowerment under Nitish’s governance inspired confidence. The alliance’s broader caste coalition extended beyond traditional lines, gaining support from non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs (Economically Backward Classes), Dalits, and even sections of Muslims, diluting the opposition’s narrow caste base.
Nitish Kumar’s personal appeal, governance record, and leadership experience played a crucial role, complemented by the “double-engine government” narrative with PM Modi. The campaign’s emphasis on preventing a return to the “Jungle Raj”—a period of alleged lawlessness during previous RJD rule—resonated deeply with voters concerned about stability and security.
A smooth and precise seat-sharing arrangement within the NDA ensured electoral efficiency and minimized vote-splitting. The alliance’s focus on development promises, such as free electricity for households and infrastructure improvements, along with disciplined campaign messaging, helped consolidate and expand its voter base. The opposition was weakened by internal rifts, poor ticket distribution, and a fragmented campaign, further aiding the NDA’s dominance.
The NDA victory was driven by women-led voter turnout, expanded and resilient caste coalitions, effective welfare schemes, governance and leadership trust, fear of lawlessness revival, and strategic campaign management that projected stability and development as key themes.
Here’s a concise, structured summary of the key factors that powered the NDA’s landslide victory in the 2025 Bihar Assembly Election:
1. Women Voters: The Game-Changer
- Turnout: Women voters outnumbered men by ~10% (overall 64.66%).
- Schemes that Delivered:
- ₹10,000 direct transfer to 75 lakh women (Mukhyamantri Rozgar Yojna)
- Free cycles for schoolgirls
- 50% reservation in panchayats
- Strict liquor prohibition (since 2016)
- Result: Shifted the traditional MY (Muslim-Yadav) base to new MY — Mahila + Youth
2. Perfect Caste Engineering
| Party | Core Base | Seats Won |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | Upper castes, urban | 89 |
| JD(U) | EBCs (~36%), Kurmis | 85 |
| LJP(RV) | Dalits (Paswan) | 19 |
| HAM(S) | SCs, OBCs | 5 |
| RLM | Kushwaha OBCs | 4 |
- 90%+ strike rate due to seamless vote transfer
- Split Yadav vote via targeted campaigns (e.g., Mohan Yadav rallies)
3. Stable Vote Share + Opposition Split
| Alliance | Vote Share 2025 | Change from 2024 LS |
|---|---|---|
| NDA | 46.7–48.3% | ↔ (same as 48.2%) |
| MGB | 36.9–37.3% | ↓ 3.2% |
| Others | ~8% | ↑ (JSP + AIMIM split anti-NDA vote) |
- JSP (Prashant Kishor): 0 seats despite 3–4% vote share
- AIMIM: 5 seats in Muslim pockets, hurt RJD
4. Development Over Dynasty
- NDA Narrative:
- 24×7 electricity
- End of Naxalism
- Industrial growth, rail exports
- Apprenticeships for youth
- MGB Failed Promises:
- “1 job per family” → unfulfilled
- Congress’s freebie flops (Himachal, Karnataka)
5. Campaign Dominance
- Modi + Shah + Yogi blitz: 50+ rallies
- RSS ground game: Removed fake voters, mobilized EBCs
- Social media mastery: Viral graphics on “Jungle Raj 2.0”
- Cultural pull: Pawan Singh in Magadh, Bhojpuri connect
Final Outcome
| Metric | NDA | MGB |
|---|---|---|
| Seats | 202 | 35 |
| Majority | 80+ | — |
| Strike Rate | ~90% | ~30% |
Nitish Kumar returns as CM for 9th term BJP becomes single-largest party in Bihar for the first time
