4 Degree Celsius Rise In Temperature May Cut Global GDP By 40%: Study
A recent study by Australian researchers from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) has revealed alarming projections regarding the economic impact of climate change. The study indicates that a 4-degree Celsius rise in global temperatures could lead to a staggering 40% reduction in world GDP by the year 2100, a significant increase from earlier estimates of around 11%.
Economic Models Overhaul: The research highlights critical flaws in traditional economic models that have shaped climate policy. Previous models primarily relied on historical data linking weather events to economic growth, neglecting the broader impacts of global supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather.
Cascading Effects: Lead researcher Dr. Timothy Neal emphasized that extreme weather events could trigger cascading disruptions across global supply chains, affecting economies worldwide, including those in colder regions like Canada and Russia, which were previously thought to be insulated from such impacts.
Wealth Implications: The study also forecasts that if temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius, individual wealth could decrease by as much as 40%, nearly four times higher than previous predictions. Even a rise of 2 degrees Celsius is projected to result in a 16% reduction in GDP per capita, far exceeding earlier estimates of just a 1.4% drop.
Urgent Climate Action: These findings underscore the necessity for more aggressive climate action, supporting targets that limit global warming to 1.7 degrees Celsius, significantly lower than the previously considered threshold of 2.7 degrees Celsius.
Dr. Neal noted that the economic case for stronger climate action is clear, stating that prior models underestimated the severity of climate change’s impact on economies. This oversight has profound implications for climate policy and decision-making, emphasizing the need for updated models that account for extreme weather and its economic ramifications.
