India’s Fertility Rate Drops Below Replacement Level: UN Report
Population and Fertility Rate Trends
India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, maintaining its position as the most populous country globally.
The country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to between 1.9 and 2.0 births per woman, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain the population size without migration.
This marks a dramatic demographic shift: in 1970, the average was nearly five children per woman, now reduced to about two, attributed to improved education, expanded access to reproductive healthcare, and effective family planning initiatives.
Disparities and Barriers
Despite the national average falling below the replacement rate, significant disparities persist across states and social groups. States such as Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh still have higher fertility rates, while Delhi, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu are well below replacement level.
Economic, social, and structural barriers prevent millions from achieving their desired family size. Financial limitations, job insecurity, lack of childcare, and poor health are among the major obstacles to reproductive freedom.
According to a UNFPA–YouGov survey, 36% of Indian adults have experienced unintended pregnancies, and 30% were unable to have the number of children they wanted, highlighting gaps in access to quality sexual and reproductive health services.
Reproductive Freedom as the Real Issue
The 2025 UNFPA State of World Population Report emphasizes that the real crisis is not overpopulation or underpopulation, but unmet reproductive goals. Many individuals, especially women, cannot make free and informed choices about sex, contraception, and starting a family.
The report calls for a shift in focus from panic over falling fertility rates to ensuring greater reproductive agency and addressing inequalities in access to reproductive healthcare and education.
Demographic Outlook
Although the fertility rate is below replacement level, India’s population will continue to grow for several decades due to demographic momentum, with projections peaking at 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before a gradual decline.
India retains a significant youth population: 24% are aged 0-14, 17% are 10-19, and 26% are 10-24, indicating ongoing demographic transitions and future workforce potential.
| Indicator | Value/Comment |
|---|---|
| Projected Population (2025) | 1.46 billion |
| Total Fertility Rate (TFR) | 1.9–2.0 births per woman (below 2.1 replacement) |
| High Fertility States | Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh |
| Low Fertility States | Delhi, Kerala, Tamil Nadu |
| Major Barriers | Financial constraints, social norms, health, childcare |
| Youth Population | 24% (0-14 yrs), 17% (10-19 yrs), 26% (10-24 yrs) |
| Unmet Reproductive Goals | 30% unable to have desired children; 36% unintended pregnancies |
India’s fertility rate dropping below replacement level signals a major demographic transition, driven by socio-economic progress. However, the real challenge, according to the UN, lies in ensuring reproductive freedom and addressing persistent inequalities—especially financial and social barriers—that prevent many Indians from achieving their desired family size.
